FuelEU Maritime — Regulation (EU) 2023/1805. Effective 1 January 2026, the regulation imposes a year-on-year greenhouse-gas intensity reduction on energy used by commercial ships above 5,000 gross tonnage (GT) on voyages to/from/within EU ports, regardless of flag. The 2026 reduction target is 2% below the 2020 baseline (89.3 gCO₂e/MJ), rising 2 percentage points annually to 6% in 2027, 14.5% in 2030, and 80% in 2040. Non-compliance penalty: €2,500 per tonne of GHG excess over the limit (per EMSA guidance), credited against the FuelEU Maritime balance.
EU ETS for shipping — what's new in 2026. The EU ETS was extended to maritime transport from 2024, with phased allowances: 40% of emissions in scope in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 100% from 1 January 2026. From 2026, methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are explicitly included in the scope (previously CO₂ only), aligning with the IMO MARPOL Annex VI amendments. EUA price (EU Allowance auction settlement) in Q2 2026 averaged €87.40/tCO₂e.
| Cost layer | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 (scheduled) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU ETS coverage (% of voyage emissions) | 70% | 100% | 100% |
| EU ETS GHG scope | CO₂ only | CO₂ + CH₄ + N₂O | CO₂ + CH₄ + N₂O |
| EUA price (€/tCO₂e, Q2 average) | €72.50 | €87.40 | forecast €95 |
| FuelEU intensity target vs 2020 | n/a (baseline year 2020) | −2% | −6% |
| Indicative compliance cost / TEU Asia–Europe | ~$15 | ~$28 | ~$50 |
Methodology for the per-TEU estimate. A 24,000 TEU neo-Panamax on a Shanghai–Rotterdam voyage emits approximately 6,500 tCO₂e under normal operations (main + auxiliary engines, ~32 days at sea). At 100% EU ETS coverage and €87.40/tCO₂e, the EU ETS line-item is €568,000 per round trip — distributed over ~24,000 loaded TEU = €23.7/TEU (or ~$26). Adding a 2% FuelEU deficit (penalty €2,500/tCO₂e) and the methane/nitrous adjustment, the 2026 per-TEU compliance premium is ~$28. By 2027 the combined EU ETS + FuelEU penalty is projected to exceed $50/TEU — broadly the same order of magnitude as the Cape diversion bunker premium ($80–$120/TEU).
Practical impact for B2B shippers. (1) Carriers are introducing a "ETS surcharge" line on B/L — typically $25–$35/TEU Europe-bound, transparent but cumulative. (2) Shippers can request Low-LCA bunker (bio-blend B30, e-methanol) from a growing list of bunkering ports (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah); price premium of 25–40% but recognised under FuelEU as compliant. (3) For shorter sea freight on intra-Asia lanes (no EU port call), neither regulation applies — this is one driver of the 2026 surge in direct intra-Asia container volumes (12% YoY per CTS data). (4) Look out for the Q3 2026 EU Commission implementing regulation detailing the "FuelEU Maritime pooling mechanism" that lets multiple vessels share compliance balances.
WanLong practice. Our freight calculator separates EU ETS / FuelEU charges from base ocean freight so customers can see the regulatory premium explicitly. For EU-bound containers we default to carriers operating methanol-ready vessels (Maersk's 18,000-TEU dual-fuel ships, COSCO's methanol orders). Source: EMSA FuelEU Maritime page; EEX EUA Daily Auction Report Q2 2026; DNV Maritime GHG Emissions Register 2025; CARES Marine biofuels pricing index.
Source: Regulation (EU) 2023/1805 (FuelEU Maritime); EU ETS Maritime Phase-In Implementing Regulation 2023/959; EMSA FuelEU Maritime portal; EEX EUA auction daily settlement 2026; DNV Maritime CO₂ emissions register
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