The Red Sea / Suez Canal disruption that began in late 2023 with Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb strait is now in its third year. As of mid-2026, the majority of Asia–Europe container vessels continue to route via the Cape of Good Hope. The Suez Canal Authority reported transits in Q1 2026 at roughly 50% of the 2023 baseline for container ships; tanker and bulk transits are higher but still below pre-crisis. Some carriers have resumed limited Suez transits under naval convoy protection, but the major alliances (2M, Ocean Alliance, THE Alliance) have not returned to pre-crisis routing.
Quantitative impact on Asia–Europe transit.
| Routing | Shenzhen–Rotterdam transit | Cost (40HQ) | CO₂ / FEU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suez (pre-crisis, 2019) | 28–32 days | $1,200 | ~1.6 t |
| Cape of Good Hope (2026) | 38–45 days | $4,500–$6,000 | ~2.6 t (+63%) |
| China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) | 22–28 days | $5,000–$7,000 | ~0.9 t |
| Air freight | 5–7 days | $5.50–$7.00/kg | ~0.5 t/tonne |
BAF and rate structure. Carriers have implemented a Red Sea-related Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) of approximately $800–$1,200 per FEU on Asia–Europe lanes. BAF values are reviewed monthly and pass through changes in VLSFO bunker prices at Singapore and Rotterdam. China–North Europe FCL spot rates have held in a $4,500–$6,000/FEU band through 2026, well above the 2019 baseline of $1,200 but below the 2024 peak of $8,000+.
Action items for buyers. (1) For non-time-sensitive EU shipments, default to sea-via-Cape with the current BAF factored in. (2) For orders where speed matters (Q4 retail launches, replacements for stockouts), consider CRE rail to Duisburg or Madrid at $5,000–$7,000 per FEU with 22–28 day transit. (3) For time-critical small parcels (samples, replenishment under 100 kg), air at $5.50–$7.00/kg remains the only feasible option. (4) For ESG reporting, factor the +63% CO₂ per FEU of Cape routing into Scope 3 emissions.
What we are doing at WanLong. We offer buyers the choice of three routing options on EU shipments: (1) Standard sea via Cape, 38–45 days, most economical; (2) Sea+Rail combined via CRE to Duisburg/Madrid, 22–28 days, mid-priced; (3) Air freight, 5–7 days, premium.
Source: Suez Canal Authority Q1 2026 transit report; Drewry; Xeneta; carrier BAF announcements; CRE China Railway Express operator data
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